2023 Predictions you must know

Bonds are rebounding from the worst bear market. Treasury prices have priced in the top of the interest rate hiking cycle & recession risk at the long end of the curve. 

Treasuries climb, foreign stocks lead, inflation declines, and the Fed says nothing. Everyone anticipates the new year now. 

Always. I don't have a crystal ball, but planning for 2023 helps. Current-fact predictions are always risky. 

Many will change before summer 2023. Nobody foresaw a Russian invasion of Ukraine or energy sector turbulence in the first half of the year. That always happened & presumably will again in 2023. 

ETF-specific predictions. Some like markets & economics. All impact 2023 returns. depending on the storyteller. The Fed wants 500-525 basis points by midyear. 

The futures market expects quarter-point drops in September & December. Which? Since the Fed hasn't softened, I'm with them. 

Powell debunked bear market rallies based on Fed pivots twice this year. At last week's meeting, he said the Fed will need "far more data" & that the labour market will determine whether pricing pressures will ease permanently. 

Despite adding 200,000 jobs a month, unemployment hasn't changed. Labor won't crack for months. The Fed may then reduce. I've suggested this several times this year. 

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Bonds are rebounding from the worst bear market. Treasury prices have priced in the top of the interest rate hiking cycle & recession risk at the long end of the curve. 

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